The law of unintended consequences is highlighted in a story I heard about the New York City subway system. Some years ago, a decision was made to try to decrease pick pocketing by posting signs, such as “Beware of Pickpockets!” The result? The incidence of pick pocketing increased!

Looking back, the theory was that seeing the sign was a little like hearing the message “Do you know where your children are tonight?” So what would a commuter automatically do when he spotted the warning? Right! Pat his pocket to make sure he still had his wallet. The thief loitering in the shadows then knew exactly where to find it.

One way to overcome our blind spots is to step back from our hectic lives and reflect more often. The pick pocket story is a good reminder that to avoid the law of unintended consequences we need to do more than reflect back on our prior experiences and decisions. Bill Welter and Jean Egmon, authors of The Prepared Mind of a Leader, advise us that we also need to “reflect forward.” We need to use our imaginations to see the potential consequences of our decisions in the future.

To help you to reflect forward when you’re considering a decision or plan, try the Flip It method.

Flip It #1

If your plan is intended to create a positive effect, Flip It by asking yourself:

What are possible negative consequences of what we’re considering? Is there any sense in which our plan might actually produce the reverse of what we are hoping for? If so, are there ways we can modify this plan or decision so as to reduce or counterbalance the negative impact?

Example: When cruise ships dock in poverty-stricken areas, tourists are often besieged by children begging for coins. Those who give to the children are hoping to help them cope with the desperate conditions they live in, but this generosity also has the unintended consequence of motivating children to miss school so that they can beg and missing school makes it more likely that they will be trapped in their poverty. What if, instead, the cruise ships arranged a kind of lottery to reward those children who were in the classroom on the days that ships docked? If children knew that on those days there would be a drawing with money prizes (donated by the tourists) for a few children in each classroom with a “winner must be present” caveat wouldn’t that transform the situation?

Flip It #2

If your plan is intended to avoid negative effects, Flip It by asking yourself:

Is it possible that the situation or condition that I see as negative might actually have some positive repercussions? How sure am I that the change I’m resisting will result in only negative consequences?

Example: The movie industry initially fought the idea of video store rentals, sure that they’d lose money because fewer people would go to the cinema. In the 1980’s, movie studios even attempted to prohibit home ownership of VCR’s through legal action, arguing that such ownership was a violation of copyright laws. Luckily for them, they lost their case because today video store rentals are a major source of income for the movie industry.

So, the next time that you find yourself so enthusiastic about an idea that you’re ready to adopt it on the spot, keep the pick pocket story in mind, and slow down. As Welter and Egmon advise, use foresight as well as hindsight. Use the Flip It questions to ask yourself if there might possibly be negative by-products of what you’re planning to do. And if you find yourself rejecting new ideas in a knee-jerk fashion because you assume they’ll have negative effects, keep the video rental story in mind. Slow down, and use the Flip It questions to see if you might be blind to a great idea.

Madeleine Van Hecke, PhD is the author of Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things (Prometheus Books, Inc., 2007). She offers workshops and seminars on reducing negativity in the workplace, improving communication, handling stress, and encouraging innovative thinking. For other free articles, including What to Do When Other Peoples Blind Spots Are Driving YOU Crazy, visit http://www.overcomeblindspots.com